Voter Fraud

I have wanted to speak to this topic so now that it is back in the news seems like a good time.

I will provide a “Thought Experiment” shortly but first let me ask this question: Does it pass the basic common sense test to think that 3 million undocumented folks, who already face deportation, would all risk imprisonment and deportation to cast one illegal vote? These people usually keep a low profile and stay away from unnecessary contact with governmental units.

Thought Experiment

Suppose you wish to swing an election by 1% and the total number of people voting is 1 million. That makes 10,000 people you need to hire.

You will need a good sized organization to do this. You need to contact all these people and get their agreement. Then you need to give them the name of a deceased voter or former voter that has moved away all coordinated with the correct precinct number. And you need to pay them.

How much do you need to pay someone to risk imprisonment for an illegal vote? Let’s say $10 would do it. So you need to have $100,000 for this project.

What is your measure of success since there is no way to tell if they voted for the designated candidate or if they voted at all? If a few take your money and do not vote as directed, you do not achieve the 1% effect.

{Thanks to Tom Johnson for informing me on this subject.}

For more on this subject, here is Josh Marshall's take including a number of links to other background material.

Real Election Fraud

The above discussion regards “voter fraud by impersonation”, the usual crime that is meant to be curbed by the various state laws that we hear about. Real election fraud, that which can be effective in swinging an election, is that where major behind-the-scenes cheating can occur. In this case poll workers permit ballot box stuffing or other means to manipulate the election results.

State and local laws that pretend to curb impersonation fraud are undemocratic and clearly are intended to limit voter participation. It is not possible to have any significant effect on an election by the few cases that may occur.