tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5354045312345482232024-02-19T07:54:23.504-08:00A Republic, If You Can Keep ItRichardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-82632845297909297882017-01-27T13:41:00.000-08:002017-01-27T13:41:29.196-08:00Crowd Size<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">One of my aims in writing this blog is to look at the
psychological and logical aspects of topics. Here I want to look at the logic
of saying the 2017 inaugural crowd was larger than the 2009 crowd.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">According to internet articles, the largest inaugural crowd
prior to 2009 was for LBJ in 1965 at 1.3 million. Obama’s 2009 crowd was 1.8
million. Recall photo I took of the 2009 crowd at the Washington Monument (See
the January 14, 2017, posting in this blog).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">One would not expect the 2017 crowd to be larger than that
of 2009 given the following:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;">1.<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>The inauguration of the first African-American
president was an astounding event for the black community. I attended the 2009
inauguration and it appeared that more than 80% of the crowd was
African-American.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;">2.<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Barrack Obama’s popularity numbers were at least
double those of Donald Trump during the transition.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;">3.<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Barrack Obama at 69,498,516 received 10% more popular
votes than Donald Trump at 62,985,105.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;">4.<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>The region around DC is primarily liberal.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-48355901662904873542017-01-25T13:26:00.002-08:002017-01-25T13:30:38.040-08:00Voter Fraud<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">I have wanted to speak to this topic so now that it is back
in the news seems like a good time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">I will provide a “Thought Experiment” shortly but first let
me ask this question: Does it pass the basic common sense test to think that 3
million undocumented folks, who already face deportation, would all risk
imprisonment and deportation to cast one illegal vote? These people usually
keep a low profile and stay away from unnecessary contact with governmental
units.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Thought Experiment</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Suppose you wish to swing an election by 1% and the total
number of people voting is 1 million. That makes 10,000 people you need to
hire.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">You will need a good sized organization to do this. You need
to contact all these people and get their agreement. Then you need to give them
the name of a deceased voter or former voter that has moved away all coordinated with
the correct precinct number. And you need to pay them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">How much do you need to pay someone to risk imprisonment for an illegal vote? Let’s say $10 would do it. So you need to have $100,000 for this project.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">What is your measure of success since there is no way to
tell if they voted for the designated candidate or if they voted at all? If a
few take your money and do not vote as directed, you do not achieve the 1%
effect.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">{Thanks to Tom Johnson for informing me on this subject.}<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">For m<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">ore on this subject</span>, here is <a href="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/your-basic-primer-on-why-trump-s-voter-fraud-claims-are-bullshit" target="_blank">Josh Marshall's</a> take including a number
of links to other background material.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Real Election Fraud<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">The above discussion regards “voter fraud by impersonation”,
the usual crime that is meant to be curbed by the various state laws that we
hear about. Real election fraud, that which can be effective in swinging an
election, is that where major behind-the-scenes cheating can occur. In this
case poll workers permit ballot box stuffing or other means to manipulate the election
results.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">State and local laws that pretend to curb
impersonation fraud are undemocratic and clearly are intended to limit voter
participation. It is not possible to have any significant effect on an election
by the few cases that may occur.</span></div>
Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-32531554722939242632017-01-19T08:30:00.001-08:002017-01-19T08:36:32.589-08:00OK, Let’s Get This Out of the Way<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Like at least 65 million of us, I was totally devastated by
the November 8, 2016, election results. </span><span style="font-size: large;">Understanding the Democratic Party policies will face
obliteration was certainly part of it but most of my great visceral discomfort
went well beyond politics.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Having listened to Donald Trump for months it was clear that
we turned the American Experiment over to—and I am being polite here—a rank
amateur with a volatile personality. We are performing the Great American
Stress Test “testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived, and so
dedicated, can long endure”, to borrow a phrase from A. Lincoln. Our government
will take generations to recover if that is even possible. One might say I am
alarmist. I dearly hope I am and that everything will be <a href="https://youtu.be/KahOD-93D7U" target="_blank">just fine</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">But I am afraid. I will not make predictions but here is a
list of possible events if Mr. Trump follows through on much of his campaign
rhetoric (I will not even mention conflict of interest and corruption because
that is a given).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">The stability of world order that Americans of both parties
has nurtured for 70 years (The Pax Americana) could quickly come undone.
Execution of foreign policy is a delicate choreography; it may not fare well
with a provocateur in charge.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">We could <a href="https://nyti.ms/2jBJRlW" target="_blank">blunder into a war</a> (if we back out of the Iran
nuclear deal, armed conflict is guaranteed from us or from Israel).</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">There could be an accidental or deliberate use of nuclear
weapons.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">There could be a global depression.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">We could see a collapse of the individual health insurance
system.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">With Republican control of all branches of government and
68% of state legislatures, unwise constitutional amendments may be passed.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">We will likely see an increase in hate crimes. Also physical
attacks on Trump critics may occur.</span></li>
</ol>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">When I said that much of my concern went beyond politics,
note that many prominent conservatives are highly critical of Trump’s behavior
as well. I follow Bret Stephens (WSJ) and David Frum on Twitter. I read
Jennifer Rubin in the Washington Post and David Brooks & Ross Douthat at
The New York Times. These writers are very critical of Trump’s behavior and I
follow them to get me out of my liberal bubble. Recently I have seen critical
tweets from Laura Ingraham and Michael Gerson. It goes beyond politics for
many.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">My fervent hope is that serious denigration of media will be
minimal so that whatever happens will be reported to the country. I want
everyone to understand the events that are to come. My nightmare scenario is
that Trump’s base will grow and sustain him. Many of them will not trust news
reports.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-87287313958436914582017-01-18T07:28:00.002-08:002017-01-18T07:30:12.865-08:00A Word about Obamacare<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTHbyHbtfiX2CfaPmElJ7KtRzdE2dvC1gcauvjUgz9wxHwnqY1Zpdb7z7JXXDD8bZur0w5eQuRIbXF9-n7xOPtygA4x-WLGEkEpDU3AQeLQUGzZ-To-8pi3u-ggcpmU3wRTFTtV-F9kGxJ/s1600/123_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTHbyHbtfiX2CfaPmElJ7KtRzdE2dvC1gcauvjUgz9wxHwnqY1Zpdb7z7JXXDD8bZur0w5eQuRIbXF9-n7xOPtygA4x-WLGEkEpDU3AQeLQUGzZ-To-8pi3u-ggcpmU3wRTFTtV-F9kGxJ/s320/123_1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"> "Save our Healthcare" Rally in Warren, MI, on January 15, 2017 (Photo: J.J. Uicker)</span></blockquote>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Republicans coined the term “Obamacare” feeling they were
pinning an unpopular law—at least in their eyes—to President Obama. It was a
pejorative term. Amusingly, President Obama eventually adopted it. There may be
some unexpected negative aspects to that adoption today since some opponents of
Obamacare may not know it is the same as the Affordable Care Act (ACA). They may
hate Obamacare but not ACA or many of the benefits of it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Repealing Obamacare (a.k.a. ACA) seems to be in the Republican
DNA and they may blunder ahead and kill it. They really, really want to kill
it. There are three members of my extended family that would be badly hurt by repeal.
Preexisting conditions prevent future insurability in the pre-2010 health
insurance world.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">The reasons for such a visceral hatred of the ACA probably
stems from the <s>need</s> desire to give tax cuts to the 1 percenters who do
not need it. Also the individual mandate is unpopular. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">The talk of replacement is silly. It is not possible to save
the pieces you like and jettison everything else. The elements are like the guy
wires on a radio tower. Break one and it all falls down. They should know this
since an <a href="https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/-responsible-national-health-insurance_095444502603.pdf" target="_blank">ACA look-alike </a>was promoted by the conservative American Enterprise
Institute and, famously, by Mitt Romney in Massachusetts. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Here is a prediction: If the tax provisions of the ACA (the
tax on high income individuals) are rescinded, no replacement for the ACA will
ever happen.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-13617306585006377402017-01-14T18:16:00.002-08:002017-01-18T07:38:34.763-08:00Barrack Obama<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">In 2006 I read “The Audacity of Hope” by Barrack Obama. Upon
finishing the book, I thought, “I want to see this man in the White House”. The
cause for my enthusiasm was his focus on being open to both sides of any issue.
Each time he presented the liberal side of an issue, he also presented the
conservative side. He came to office really wanting to be open to both sides
but the door was shut in his face. The Republicans blocked any move on any
issue. They even refused invitations to state dinners at the White House.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Only time will tell how his presidency will be regarded by
history. If all his programs are killed by the succeeding administration, how
will he be judged?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">I attended his 2009 inauguration. I did not have a ticket I
just showed up with 1.8 million other admirers. Prior to his first inauguration,
the previous attendance record was Lyndon Johnson in 1965 at 1.3 million people. Due to a subway accident, I had to walk miles further than
expected and when I finally got onto the National Mall, it was way back by the
Washington Monument. Here is a photo I took that day. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqdlDNazdewJzRVnAYPRhZ5aNR84hKP_YPJrS6iCNwA6crYjCI8TlnoK-vKhKuTcp2T_hs6h7GJQNkOHBfMiOo9wRXLdlnOoqWbFpFT0Apm3j1sW-ZS7drkTSQh6ue4rPDfJrWk1lzooIc/s1600/0901_20_042.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqdlDNazdewJzRVnAYPRhZ5aNR84hKP_YPJrS6iCNwA6crYjCI8TlnoK-vKhKuTcp2T_hs6h7GJQNkOHBfMiOo9wRXLdlnOoqWbFpFT0Apm3j1sW-ZS7drkTSQh6ue4rPDfJrWk1lzooIc/s320/0901_20_042.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">It was a pleasure to see him in office for eight years. A
scandal-free eight years with an attractive young family.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">I do have a few disappointments. Everyone talks about the
failure to respond </span><span style="font-size: large;">after</span><span style="font-size: large;"> Assad crossed the “red line”. Here history will
again decide his wisdom or lack of it. The other thing I wish could have been
different is his communication with the nation. He should have made a sales
pitch for healthcare reform and the stimulus. I think he found this necessary
part of a good presidency a pain. He didn’t want to play the game.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">He is very young and I hope he continues serving the country
like Jimmy Carter. I understand he may work with Eric Holder on pushing back
against the undemocratic practice of gerrymandering.</span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Thanks, President Obama, and the best of luck to you.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-28839500215199457092017-01-10T11:17:00.004-08:002017-01-12T17:08:14.886-08:00Trumpublican Chaos Theory<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: large;">Definition: Trumpublican. A republican in the age of Trump
and typically a Trump supporter. (No offense intended. It just makes a nice
portmanteau).</span></blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Politics may be defined in a number of ways. I have heard “the
art of the possible” for one but it also should be “the art of persuasion”.
Persuade me with your argument. Whatever our political leanings we should be
aware and beware of tricks. Just in the first week of the 115<sup>th</sup>
congress we have seen middle of the night sessions to push through unpopular
measures. Also tomorrow, January 11, the Trumpublicans have scheduled a flurry of
confirmation hearings. Coincidentally, Donald Trump has scheduled his first
news conference since his election. Is this like a shell game: move things
around real fast so we lose track of events?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">But the main thing I wanted to point out in this post is Mr.
Trump’s habit of distracting the media (who are eager to follow ‘shiny objects’)
with Tweets. Whenever a real Trump news nugget occurs, there seems to be some outrageous
Tweets about something else that follow, dominate the news cycle and get the
conversation off the more important story. Clever but let’s keep our eye on the
important stuff.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">I am reminded of a funny trick some guys played when I was a
teenager. A guy would come toward me dancing like a boxer saying “Watch my
right. Watch my right” and then he would whack me with his left.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Another trick we should be aware of is Mr. Trump’s habit of
saying or doing provocative things and then denying it when called out on it. This
also is coupled somewhat with the phenomenon of disbelieving the news. More on
this in later posts. But the denial of obvious events brings to mind another
old memory that has stayed with me over the years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">In the 1967 movie “A Guide for the Married Man”, the wife
comes into the bedroom to find her husband in bed with some hot babe. The woman
leaves quickly, he casually gets out of bed, gets dressed and goes into the
living room and begins to read the newspaper. His wife screams, “Who was that
woman?” He calmly replies incredulously, “What woman?”</span><o:p></o:p><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>{Update: I have heard a new term used to describe the attempt to confuse and disorient by means of distraction. "Gaslight" refers to a <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0036855/?ref_=nv_sr_1" target="_blank">1944 movie </a>where a man tries to drive his wife insane by continually lowering the gas lights incrementally and saying there is nothing wrong when she asks about it.}</i></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><i><br /></i></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>{Update: I forgot to include this video of a military aircraft throwing out "shiny objects" to distract any incoming heat-seeking missiles. A pretty fancy distraction trick}</i></span></div>
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KbI2Hj-xXGM" width="560"></iframe>Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-40294293705380228212017-01-06T08:22:00.004-08:002017-01-06T08:22:56.936-08:00Master of the Medium<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Whatever one thinks of DJT one thing is clear: he is a
master of the art of TV. That can have both a positive and negative side.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">I once heard that President Reagan would make some public
pronouncement once or twice a week. This kept him in the public consciousness
and instilled a sense of him being on top of things. And, of course, the
fireside chats of FDR are legendary. When DJT was campaigning he was constantly
in the news. I believe that was a wise thing for one to do if one wants to
increase ones popularity. President Obama did not care to do that sort of
thing, which likely reduced his potential popularity.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">The negative side is that this constant TV presence can be
used as a smokescreen (think “voter fraud”, “flag burning”) to distract the
public from other gaffes, scandals, & corrupt practices. More on this topic
in my next post.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-18986783535403020312017-01-05T19:55:00.001-08:002017-01-05T19:55:19.886-08:00Vote Your Gut<br /><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Advice in judging a presidential candidate I have followed
was, “It’s not what they say it’s what they write that counts”. Position papers
were the thing to study. The election of 2016 did not revolve around position
papers. Hillary had a bunch on her website, Trump not so much. The media did
not care.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">In the presidential campaign of 2000, it was said that
George W. Bush was preferred by many because he was viewed to be someone you
would enjoy having a beer with. So it was important to personally identify with
the candidate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">In this <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-need-to-focus-on-the-gut-not-the-head/2016/12/01/dfbe7782-b803-11e6-a677-b608fbb3aaf6_story.html?utm_term=.7ca3ef1fb138" target="_blank">Fareed Zakaria article</a>, and in his CNN program on
December 4, the “personal identity” angle was revealed in more detail in regard
to the white working class (WWC):</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">WWC folks do not vote based on policy. They vote for someone
they identify with and then adopt his or her policies.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">They do not like elites because elites boss them around
every day.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">They admire the rich. They would like to have more money but
keep their current lifestyle.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Be sure to check out the links to the Harvard Business
Review article in the Fareed Zakaria link, above. It is very informative.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">In the book “What’s the Matter With Kansas?” Thomas Frank
probed the question of why the WWC voted against their own interests. That is,
why do they vote Republican? One good reason, I believe, is that since the
Republican Party has for years expressed a skepticism about the federal
government (‘government is the problem', ‘Washington is broken’, etc.) the WWC
more easily identified with them. Some pundits have stated that Hillary likely
would have prevailed if she had expressed her working class childhood and time
lived in Arkansas. Her husband knew how to do that. Also recall Joe Biden
always talking about his origin in Scranton, PA.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-81200417748235771352017-01-04T05:53:00.000-08:002017-01-04T05:57:02.201-08:00How the Election Was Won<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">A Feminist might say, “Hillary lost because she is a woman”.
Someone else might say it was the private e-mail server. Still others go with
Russian interference, FBI interference, or her bad reputation. Choosing the
straw that broke the camel’s back depends on your viewpoint. There are many
such straws.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">We often hear that America is relatively evenly divided
politically. About 1/3 of the voters are hard-and-fast Republicans, and about
1/3 are dyed-in-the-wool Democrats. They will vote their party no matter what. So
an election comes down to the so-called independents or swing voters. In recent
years (since 2000) presidential election results have been very close. So how
does this middle third decide?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Sometimes quite diverse groups will find themselves on the
same side of an issue or candidate. Prohibition became a constitutional amendment
partially because of this phenomenon and provides some insight. For example
these two sets of divergent groups were in favor of prohibition:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Business leaders (Ford, Carnegie, et al.) thought alcohol
undercut the output of workers while the Industrial Workers of the World
thought alcohol was part of a capitalist plot to weaken the working man.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Booker T. Washington thought alcohol undermined black
progress while white Southerners thought alcohol turned black people into goons.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">But I digress.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Much of the swing in swing voters is predictable. One
prominent example is that after two terms of one party in the White House,
there is a desire to favor the other party. Professor <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/28/professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-elections-correctly-is-doubling-down-on-a-trump-win/?utm_term=.266c8b873d7a" target="_blank">Allan Lichtman</a> understands
this and has created a <a href="https://read.amazon.com/kp/embed?asin=B008UTR27M&preview=newtab&linkCode=kpe&ref_=cm_sw_r_kb_dp_U9ViybQQHC4DF&tag=thewaspos09-20&reshareId=5NGHWDSQYD5JWZ8JWQGW&reshareChannel=system" target="_blank"> 13-factor history-based check list</a> that has successfully
predicted the winner of a presidential election for the last 30 years. He
predicted a Trump win in September of 2016.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">So let’s look at some other factors that were in play in
2016.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">White backlash. Being polite, let’s say there were some
people who were uncomfortable with a black president.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Gender preference. Many folks are not ready for a woman
president.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Backlash against perceived Democratic Party overreach (Think
Obamacare).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">White working class (WWC) feeling threatened by
technological change, their shrinking fraction of the population and,
therefore, immigration.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">The tendency of voters to ignore policy and “go with their
gut” was extraordinarily important in 2016 and will be examined in a future
blog post.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Then there is a whole basket of media-related influences:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Media false equivalence, i.e. both parties do it.
Paraphrasing Paul Krugman during the George W. Bush years, “If the president
said ‘the earth is flat’, it would be reported as ‘opinions differ on shape of
the planet’”.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Media lives and dies on ratings. Trump got <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-mammoth-advantage-in-free-media.html?_r=0" target="_blank">gobs</a> (reportedly
$1.9 billion worth) of free TV coverage because he was entertaining to watch.
People are distracted by shiny objects.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Related to the above is the cult of celebrity. Will all
future candidates need to be telegenic and entertaining?</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">The influence of TV’s blurring of reality and fantasy.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">The decline in responsible journalism. In the 24-hour news
cycle, there is such a rush for the “exclusive scoop” that rumors and errors
are reported. They may be walked back later but first impressions are hard to
change.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p>
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">As I said above, which straw that tipped the election
depends on your viewpoint but there was one heavy straw. The specter of more
Clinton e-mails put forward by FBI director James Comey a few days before the
election had to have a huge impact, even though it was found to be a <a href="http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=nothingburger" target="_blank">nothingburger. </a>Remember, first impressions are hard to change.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-59365363115861111092017-01-03T06:38:00.000-08:002017-01-10T09:05:56.711-08:00The Golden Age in America<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">I grew up in what I call the golden age in America. After
World War II, much of the industrialized world was in shambles. The U.S., its
industry untouched by the destruction of war, was humming along making things
for rebuilding Germany, Japan, et al. Times were very good in the country.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">In the first week of October 1957 the Soviet Union launched
Sputnik. It was a great shock to us and we scrambled to compete. Engineering
and science education was encouraged with scholarships and easy defense loans.
As Thomas Freedman (NYT columnist and author) says “You needed a plan to fail”.
Engineering students, me included, received telegrams from company recruiters. There
was plenty of government money available for things like going to the moon in 1969
because the top marginal federal income tax rate was 70%.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">By the early 1970s the industrial capacity of Japan and
Germany were largely recovered and competition began to show up most noticeably
in the automotive sector. We felt the pressure. Market share for the “Big 3”
auto makers began to contract. From that point onward, the working class
suffered wage stagnation leading eventually to despair.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Now, living in the aftermath of the working class uprising (the
presidential election of 2016) I wonder if we are basing our expectations on
memories of that golden age. Not to be crass, but I am reminded of the title
line in the 1997 movie “As Good as It Gets” where Jack Nicholson’s character Melvin
Udall asks a crowded psychiatrist’s waiting room, “What if this is as good as it
gets?”</span><o:p></o:p><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><i>{Update: Clearly I was writing of my own experience. Black folks may not consider that period so golden}</i></span></div>
Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-73176134606222946442017-01-02T06:43:00.001-08:002017-01-05T17:53:39.205-08:00How did we get here?<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">After November 8, 2016, many have been asking “How did we get here?” Some, me included, were wondering what was happening to
American society these last 20 years or more. It was clear to me that if the
election had gone the other way we would still have to deal with these forces
even stronger in 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">What interests me about the tectonic shift of this election
are the societal/sociological aspects. Those are, at least initially, what I
want to explore in the blog. There are so very many aspects to it. One aspect
is the influence of the media and by that I primarily mean television and then
the internet. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">For decades I have been a fan of the movie “Network”, the
academy award winning film about how the news arm of a broadcast network got
assimilated by the entertainment arm. Not only was it a greatly enjoyable movie
but, in 1976, it was clearly prophetic.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">CNN, created in 1980 broke the monopoly of the “Big 3” (CBS,
NBC, & ABC) while starting the proliferation of 24 hour news programs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<br />Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-535404531234548223.post-48221218374483298002016-12-05T06:45:00.001-08:002016-12-05T06:50:02.496-08:00My Purpose<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">As Ben Franklin left Independence hall on the final day of
the Constitutional Convention of 1787, a <a href="http://www.bartleby.com/73/1593.html" target="_blank">woman asked</a>, “Well, Doctor, what have
we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?” Franklin replied, ”A Republic, if you can
keep it.” That anecdote occurred to me among the swirling thoughts following Election
Day 2016. So many thoughts. So hard to accept. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">This blog aims to be an examination of the societal forces
that brought us to where we are today. I will minimize partisan blather but I
do have a left of center viewpoint. My side is not flawless and that must be
discussed as well.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06068392851256778909noreply@blogger.com0